First-order effects
Select a branch to inspect its immediate gains and costs.
A speculative instrument · Not a prediction
A decision is a door. Behind it: not destiny, but a family of possible stories. Walk through four versions of a fictional choice. Notice the costs, the gifts, and what nobody could know in advance.
Four fictional worlds · Local-only notes · No account · No score for your life
The decision theatre / act I
Each scene follows an invented character. Outcomes are authored illustrations, not estimates. Pick a scene, select a path, then reveal how different assumptions alter the story.
The inciting incident
Mira can keep her dependable position or take a less predictable role with room to learn.
Choose the immediate action
Four story branches can be selected using the numbered buttons outside the graph.
Act II / follow the consequences
Every action opens several plausible timelines. Which account you encounter depends on the narrative branch you choose.
Select a branch to inspect its immediate gains and costs.
Look for delayed consequences, adaptations and surprises.
Reversibility is contextual and never binary.
Act III / expose the machinery
Every counterfactual hides assumptions. Change one and watch the interpretive note shift. This does not recalculate a real future.
[Interpretive model] The note is a deliberately authored lens, not a computed causal forecast.
Act IV / put the worlds beside each other
Save up to two branches from this scene to compare benefits, costs, uncertainty and reversibility.
No branches pinned. Select one and use “Add branch to comparison.”
Private notebook
Only your scene, pinned comparisons, branch selections and note are saved on this device. No networking or analytics script is used. Reset clears this project's storage.
The epistemic contract
Counterfactual reasoning considers what might have followed from an alternative action. A vivid story can help us examine a decision, but vividness is not likelihood. Every branch here is authored fiction.
Outcomes depend on resources, luck, relationships, institutions and timing. A change in action may matter greatly, or be overwhelmed by conditions outside the protagonist's control.
Some decisions allow trial periods, feedback or exit ramps. Where consequences are costly to reverse, information-gathering and smaller experiments may be more valuable than heroic certainty.
Choose a scene and inspect all four branches. Note a cost that appears even in an appealing outcome. Ask whether your first preference depended on an omitted cost.
Choose a branch and move the support constraint from scarce to abundant. The interpretation changes without pretending the underlying events have been predicted. Ask what evidence about support you would actually seek.
Compare a high-commitment branch with an experimental one. Write a reversible action that might reveal information in the real world. This is reflection, not a recommendation to make a particular decision.
Accessible reading room / no animation required
The four scenes each offer four narrative approaches: commit, preserve, experiment, and consult. Each is a fictional trajectory with first- and second-order effects. Readers can explore these independently of the diagram.
Work: Mira receives an offer that trades stability for growth. She could take the role, remain in her present job, negotiate a short trial, or consult trusted peers. Each choice may preserve something and sacrifice something else.
Learning: Dev considers evening study while working full time. He could enrol, defer, sample a short course, or create a peer study circle. There is no branch without opportunity cost.
Relationships: Noor wonders whether to send another invitation after silence. She could ask directly, step away, write a low-pressure note, or seek perspective. Uncertainty about the other person remains irreducible.
Creativity: Ari has an unfinished interactive prototype. They could launch it, polish privately, run a tiny pilot, or collaborate. Feedback, attention, craft and autonomy may pull in different directions.